I'm not insulting your intelligence, I'm just stating that you're keeping your mind closed. I'm trying to be helpful, because of course it's in my best interest to kill the Serial Killer. If I were threatened by you, I would not raise any other questionings nor engage in a tête-a-tête with you. You are trying to pull a "fallacy fallacy", even though there is no fallacy whatsoever to start with. I'm just advising you to keep your mind open.
"The SK may, by some miracle, kill a mafia every night, but then what? He's left with a bunch of townies, you, maybe a doc, and maybe a cop. He loses in that situation too. Your entire role revolves around killing him. I don't need the sk to kill you tonight, I just need him to recognize that you're his biggest threat. So long as you live, he will always die."
Not at all. In this scenario, I would not know if the Serial Killer is himself. As a matter of fact, it should be obvious that, to him, the Cop is a bigger threat than me, seeing how that would reveal his alligment.
The fact, Taiki, is that you are refusing to see this simple fact. The Cop is superior than the Reporter, because it shows allignment. It is bad for the SK to have his allignment shown, while it's not decisive if I show he did an action.
Besides, the Serial Killer could play smart and not kill anyone on the first days. Have you thought about it? Have you thought about he could possibly evade suspicion by not moving in the first three days? After all, we can't determine if he was defended by the Doctor, Mafia Doctor or not. By inductive reasoning, I would consider my reports to be correct, even though there are a chance they are not.
The fact is that you didn't consider many possibilities. You are thinking that I will investigate the Serial Killer on the first day, that he will move, that I will snitch on him on the first day... you are thinking about too many possibilities, but no real facts nor counter-facts.
We've already established that the sk will die 100% of the time if you find him. As I said, he will claim doc, doc will cc, et cetera.
Now let's establish what will happen if you find other roles.
You have a 2/x chance of find a normal mafia this is a + for him
You have a 1/x chance of finding a mafia doctor this is a + for him
You have a 1/x chance of find the doctor this is a - for him
You have a 1/x chance of find him this is a - for him
You find a mafia/mafia doc that's 1 less threat.
You find the doctor, the doctor cc's, survives till the end and reduces the sk's chance of victory by 50%
Assuming that somehow he manages to make it to the final 3, you oust him and he dies.
The sk needs you to die fairly early on in this game. That's just a fact that can't be denied.
Yes, it's true the sk could just do nothing for a few days, but as you already stated, the sk doesn't have that kind of luxury. He needs people to die and he needs them to die fast. Even if he doesn't move, the cop can still find him. It just temporarily lowers the chance of death from 2/x to 1/x
As for the situation where you don't oust him, Why would you do that? there's no benefit for you. Therefor, that's not going to happen.
You act like every here is stupid. If you oust the sk, he calls doc, doc cc's, we go into night phase waiting for one of them to die, sk kills cop to avoid confirmation, mafia kills sk because he's a threat.
Sure, it may not go down exactly like that, but if you oust him, he's screwed.
Anyways, it's not like I can get you to admit that you need to die. It's in the sk's hands so I'll leave it to them.
However, back on track, I agree that Low is looking suspicious.