Topic: [Mafia] Entering The Medium [DAY 4]

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  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 10:02 PM
#181
Taiki, The Cheerful Warbringer of the Ancients

Contribution: 216 (199 + 17)
Joined: April 1, 2011
lordhyuga13 wrote:

Okay, I may be wrong but I think we're overestimating the damage Taylor can cause because he is Taylor. If we believe that he is the reporter and that Buggy is the cop then there are 11 roles left unaccounted for. Taylor can only detect 3 of these 11 (the one mafia doc, the town doc, and the sk) and won't be able to say what their alignments are. As long as we have the one-shot townie we can kill Taylor during any day if he gets close to his win condition. Plus, as Taiki said, its entirely possible that the SK will want to get rid of Taylor with his night kill despite Taylor trying to talk him off of it.


If I was overestimating him, I'd be pushing a lynch. As it is, I just wanted to make sure the sk knew he had to kill him sometimes soon. It's beneficial for both the sk and the town if the sk kills him.
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 10:03 PM
#182
Taiki, The Cheerful Warbringer of the Ancients

Contribution: 216 (199 + 17)
Joined: April 1, 2011
Chas3_Th3_Dr3am wrote:


(...)Because we don't control what the SK does.


Doesn't matter. The sk needs him dead more than anyone. Leave it to the sk and he'll kill him fairly soon, so long as he plans on winning.
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 10:09 PM
#183
lordhyuga13, The Twisted Alchemist

Contribution: 81 (78 + 3)
Joined: March 3, 2010
Taiki wrote:


(...)

If I was overestimating him, I'd be pushing a lynch. As it is, I just wanted to make sure the sk knew he had to kill him sometimes soon. It's beneficial for both the sk and the town if the sk kills him.


I was agreeing with you and saying that Taylor should not be a lynch priority today.
There is actually a great opportunity for a successful lynch today if we take our time and think it through. We have a fair chance of hitting the enemy with almost no risk to town power roles.
"The heart of a fool is in his mouth, but the mouth of the wise man is in his heart."

Benjamin Franklin
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 10:14 PM
#184
Taiki, The Cheerful Warbringer of the Ancients

Contribution: 216 (199 + 17)
Joined: April 1, 2011
lordhyuga13 wrote:


(...)

I was agreeing with you and saying that Taylor should not be a lynch priority today.
There is actually a great opportunity for a successful lynch today if we take our time and think it through. We have a fair chance of hitting the enemy with almost no risk to town power roles.


I know. I was just saying I'm not overestimating his role.

We already have plenty of data, now we just need people to sift through it and compile their opinions. It's not like we're short on time.
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 10:24 PM
#185
Karab, The Fierce Tiger

Contribution: 3,492 (3,159 + 333)
Joined: February 18, 2010
I'd like to hear something from Ragi and Demon

a bit more from Skeet as well
-----------germ---------another germ---------------
-----------GERMS ALL OVER THE PLACE---------
Oh Look at that, looks like there's SO MANY MOD GERMS
Okay, who the flower's the smartass

Now THAT's just being a precious flower.

I am going to slam a lovely rainbow flower into your beautiful face you flower
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 10:26 PM
#186
Chas3_Th3_Dr3am, Dreamer of the Ancestors

Contribution: 2,354 (2,097 + 257)
Joined: January 14, 2011
I have nothing to say, thank you.
Check out my Soundcloud!

Rainbows, sunshine. Everywhere we go.
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 10:28 PM
#187
Karab, The Fierce Tiger

Contribution: 3,492 (3,159 + 333)
Joined: February 18, 2010
Chas3_Th3_Dr3am wrote:

I have nothing to say, thank you.


Why not?

180 posts, about 5 have been yours

Why are you playing if the game doesn't interest you
-----------germ---------another germ---------------
-----------GERMS ALL OVER THE PLACE---------
Oh Look at that, looks like there's SO MANY MOD GERMS
Okay, who the flower's the smartass

Now THAT's just being a precious flower.

I am going to slam a lovely rainbow flower into your beautiful face you flower
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 10:30 PM
#188
Arasoi, The Untouchable Priestess

Contribution: 626 (537 + 89)
Joined: February 21, 2012
Karab wrote:

I'd like to hear something from Ragi


I'm going to be looking for a substitute for Ragi starting tomorrow, he's not been around.
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 10:39 PM
#189
Chas3_Th3_Dr3am, Dreamer of the Ancestors

Contribution: 2,354 (2,097 + 257)
Joined: January 14, 2011
Karab wrote:


(...)

Why not?

180 posts, about 5 have been yours

Why are you playing if the game doesn't interest you

There's nothing to be said from me at the moment. I posted what I felt like the best thing to do today and no one is going with it. I'm just looking forward into how this pans out.
Check out my Soundcloud!

Rainbows, sunshine. Everywhere we go.
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 10:42 PM
#190
Demonkings, The Golden Demon

Contribution: 1,488 (1,318 + 170)
Joined: March 11, 2011
I dunno what to say lol

All I could think of is a random lynch seeing as reverse psychology plays out in the game. Excluding Taylor and bughead
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 11:13 PM
#191
Taylor, The Manipulative Tactician of the Darkness

Contribution: 1,189 (1,010 + 179)
Joined: February 19, 2010
Taiki wrote:


(...)

Insulting my intelligence is a fallacy, as you well know. It is used when a person feels threatened and needs to undermine someone else's argument but has no logical way of doing so besides a personal attack. You my laugh or deny it, but either way you feel threatened because you know I am right. The SK may, by some miracle, kill a mafia every night, but then what? He's left with a bunch of townies, you, maybe a doc, and maybe a cop. He loses in that situation too. Your entire role revolves around killing him. I don't need the sk to kill you tonight, I just need him to recognize that you're his biggest threat. So long as you live, he will always die.


I'm not insulting your intelligence, I'm just stating that you're keeping your mind closed. I'm trying to be helpful, because of course it's in my best interest to kill the Serial Killer. If I were threatened by you, I would not raise any other questionings nor engage in a tête-a-tête with you. You are trying to pull a "fallacy fallacy", even though there is no fallacy whatsoever to start with. I'm just advising you to keep your mind open.

"The SK may, by some miracle, kill a mafia every night, but then what? He's left with a bunch of townies, you, maybe a doc, and maybe a cop. He loses in that situation too. Your entire role revolves around killing him. I don't need the sk to kill you tonight, I just need him to recognize that you're his biggest threat. So long as you live, he will always die."

Not at all. In this scenario, I would not know if the Serial Killer is himself. As a matter of fact, it should be obvious that, to him, the Cop is a bigger threat than me, seeing how that would reveal his alligment.

The fact, Taiki, is that you are refusing to see this simple fact. The Cop is superior than the Reporter, because it shows allignment. It is bad for the SK to have his allignment shown, while it's not decisive if I show he did an action.

Besides, the Serial Killer could play smart and not kill anyone on the first days. Have you thought about it? Have you thought about he could possibly evade suspicion by not moving in the first three days? After all, we can't determine if he was defended by the Doctor, Mafia Doctor or not. By inductive reasoning, I would consider my reports to be correct, even though there are a chance they are not.

The fact is that you didn't consider many possibilities. You are thinking that I will investigate the Serial Killer on the first day, that he will move, that I will snitch on him on the first day... you are thinking about too many possibilities, but no real facts nor counter-facts.


Elevation - The Rise of the Mercenary
Show me the gold and I'll show you victory.
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 11:16 PM
#192
Taylor, The Manipulative Tactician of the Darkness

Contribution: 1,189 (1,010 + 179)
Joined: February 19, 2010
One more thing: the chances of Low being Mafia or the Serial Killer are extremely high, seeing how he is trying to place this role on someone as if it wasn't this. This is a simple case of transference, which is exactly the reason why I voted on him.

That's why I advise the Vigilante to kill him on Day 1. Not considering the psychological analysis, the chances of him being damaging to town is of 40%. Considering the psychological analysis, that number is even higher. If we kill the SK on Day 1, less people will die (which is good for Town), I won't risk dying (although it would be stupid for the SK to not go for Mafia, for reasons already explained) and I will have more time to develop my plan.

It is in my best intention to kill a damaging party today. Make it happen, Vigilante.


Elevation - The Rise of the Mercenary
Show me the gold and I'll show you victory.
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 11:19 PM
#193
Zadion, The Twisted Child of Death

Contribution: 1,077 (757 + 320)
Joined: February 22, 2010
Low wrote:

Meh I'm just surprised Taiki has a brain. lol


burn

hello, it's me. i was wondering if after all these years you'd like to meet
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 11:24 PM
#194
Taylor, The Manipulative Tactician of the Darkness

Contribution: 1,189 (1,010 + 179)
Joined: February 19, 2010
lordhyuga13 wrote:

Okay, I may be wrong but I think we're overestimating the damage Taylor can cause because he is Taylor. If we believe that he is the reporter and that Buggy is the cop then there are 11 roles left unaccounted for. Taylor can only detect 3 of these 11 (the one mafia doc, the town doc, and the sk) and won't be able to say what their alignments are. As long as we have the one-shot townie we can kill Taylor during any day if he gets close to his win condition. Plus, as Taiki said, its entirely possible that the SK will want to get rid of Taylor with his night kill despite Taylor trying to talk him off of it.


Correction, I can also detect any Mafia that makes a factional kill.

Besides, why would you waste the 1-Shot Vigilante with a Third-Party non-killing role? You have to kill 4 people and only two strategies would be logical:

1 - Kill in the very beginning, to try and get the SK and prevent one death per night;

2 - Kill in the very end, when you reach a 3-person scenario with the Reporter alive. (the reporter will want to kill the Vigilante through a lynch, so the Vigilante simply shoot the last Mafia before he is lynched).

Anything other than that does not make sense to me, specially wasting an ability that can be a gamechanger depending on how it's used.


Elevation - The Rise of the Mercenary
Show me the gold and I'll show you victory.
  Posted on December 9, 2013 at 11:57 PM
#195
Taiki, The Cheerful Warbringer of the Ancients

Contribution: 216 (199 + 17)
Joined: April 1, 2011
Taylor wrote:


(...)

I'm not insulting your intelligence, I'm just stating that you're keeping your mind closed. I'm trying to be helpful, because of course it's in my best interest to kill the Serial Killer. If I were threatened by you, I would not raise any other questionings nor engage in a tête-a-tête with you. You are trying to pull a "fallacy fallacy", even though there is no fallacy whatsoever to start with. I'm just advising you to keep your mind open.

"The SK may, by some miracle, kill a mafia every night, but then what? He's left with a bunch of townies, you, maybe a doc, and maybe a cop. He loses in that situation too. Your entire role revolves around killing him. I don't need the sk to kill you tonight, I just need him to recognize that you're his biggest threat. So long as you live, he will always die."

Not at all. In this scenario, I would not know if the Serial Killer is himself. As a matter of fact, it should be obvious that, to him, the Cop is a bigger threat than me, seeing how that would reveal his alligment.

The fact, Taiki, is that you are refusing to see this simple fact. The Cop is superior than the Reporter, because it shows allignment. It is bad for the SK to have his allignment shown, while it's not decisive if I show he did an action.

Besides, the Serial Killer could play smart and not kill anyone on the first days. Have you thought about it? Have you thought about he could possibly evade suspicion by not moving in the first three days? After all, we can't determine if he was defended by the Doctor, Mafia Doctor or not. By inductive reasoning, I would consider my reports to be correct, even though there are a chance they are not.

The fact is that you didn't consider many possibilities. You are thinking that I will investigate the Serial Killer on the first day, that he will move, that I will snitch on him on the first day... you are thinking about too many possibilities, but no real facts nor counter-facts.


We've already established that the sk will die 100% of the time if you find him. As I said, he will claim doc, doc will cc, et cetera.

Now let's establish what will happen if you find other roles.
You have a 2/x chance of find a normal mafia this is a + for him
You have a 1/x chance of finding a mafia doctor this is a + for him
You have a 1/x chance of find the doctor this is a - for him
You have a 1/x chance of find him this is a - for him

You find a mafia/mafia doc that's 1 less threat.
You find the doctor, the doctor cc's, survives till the end and reduces the sk's chance of victory by 50%

Assuming that somehow he manages to make it to the final 3, you oust him and he dies.

The sk needs you to die fairly early on in this game. That's just a fact that can't be denied.

Yes, it's true the sk could just do nothing for a few days, but as you already stated, the sk doesn't have that kind of luxury. He needs people to die and he needs them to die fast. Even if he doesn't move, the cop can still find him. It just temporarily lowers the chance of death from 2/x to 1/x

As for the situation where you don't oust him, Why would you do that? there's no benefit for you. Therefor, that's not going to happen.

You act like every here is stupid. If you oust the sk, he calls doc, doc cc's, we go into night phase waiting for one of them to die, sk kills cop to avoid confirmation, mafia kills sk because he's a threat.

Sure, it may not go down exactly like that, but if you oust him, he's screwed.

Anyways, it's not like I can get you to admit that you need to die. It's in the sk's hands so I'll leave it to them.

However, back on track, I agree that Low is looking suspicious.